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Definitive Analysis

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China Telecom Corporation Limited (601728.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.38 - $78.76$65.53
Multi-Stage$10.96 - $11.99$11.47
Blended Fair Value$38.50
Current Price$6.66
Upside478.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.48%14.27%0.260.220.290.090.100.100.080.080.070.07
YoY Growth--17.29%-24.41%214.47%-8.89%4.17%17.48%0.50%16.04%5.34%-0.61%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.64%4.58%2.31%1.66%1.59%1.35%1.35%1.16%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36,373.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,722.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,651.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,274.664,546.672,728.00
Cash Retained (M)20,651.0420,651.0420,651.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,274.66-4,546.67-2,728.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,376.3716,104.3717,923.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91,507.1091,507.1091,507.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Fair Value$21.38$65.53$78.76
Upside / Downside221.04%883.98%1,082.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36,373.3238,591.5640,945.0743,442.1146,091.4448,902.3450,369.41
Payout Ratio43.22%52.58%61.93%71.29%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,722.2820,291.3725,359.2730,969.8437,170.4244,012.1046,591.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.10%6.10%7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)18,844.7519,024.0619,203.36
Year 2 PV (M)21,872.3322,290.5322,712.70
Year 3 PV (M)24,807.1125,521.9826,250.46
Year 4 PV (M)27,651.1928,718.7029,816.82
Year 5 PV (M)30,406.5831,880.9433,411.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)879,083.70921,709.05965,972.07
Equity Value (M)1,002,665.661,049,145.261,097,367.36
Shares Outstanding (M)91,507.1091,507.1091,507.10
Fair Value$10.96$11.47$11.99
Upside / Downside64.52%72.15%80.06%

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