Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Jintian Copper(Group) Co., Ltd. (601609.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.07 - $97.29$91.17
Multi-Stage$13.47 - $14.73$14.09
Blended Fair Value$52.63
Current Price$12.39
Upside324.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.21%17.38%0.380.330.320.280.210.150.190.080.090.07
YoY Growth--14.61%2.65%12.89%33.76%41.31%-20.85%124.99%-10.29%31.28%-5.67%
Dividend Yield--5.94%5.23%4.73%3.63%2.19%1.59%2.01%0.89%1.00%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)762.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)501.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.5295.3257.19
Cash Retained (M)261.06261.06261.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.52-95.32-57.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.54165.74203.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,558.891,558.891,558.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.07$91.17$97.29
Upside / Downside158.82%635.85%685.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)762.58812.15864.94921.16981.041,044.811,076.15
Payout Ratio65.77%70.61%75.46%80.31%85.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)501.52573.48652.68739.75835.39940.33995.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)531.99537.03542.08
Year 2 PV (M)561.65572.35583.15
Year 3 PV (M)590.52607.47624.74
Year 4 PV (M)618.61642.40666.87
Year 5 PV (M)645.94677.14709.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,054.1818,926.2019,831.60
Equity Value (M)21,002.8921,962.5922,957.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,558.891,558.891,558.89
Fair Value$13.47$14.09$14.73
Upside / Downside8.74%13.71%18.86%

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