Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Americana Restaurants International PLC (6015.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.32 - $0.62$0.44
Multi-Stage$0.55 - $0.60$0.57
Blended Fair Value$0.51
Current Price$0.54
Upside-5.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.11%0.00%0.020.010.010.020.010.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--73.67%24.34%-36.00%116.55%-43.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.73%1.39%0.92%2.12%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.3522.1013.26
Cash Retained (M)49.7849.7849.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.35-22.10-13.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4327.6936.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$0.32$0.44$0.62
Upside / Downside-39.76%-17.80%14.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.77180.39184.09187.87191.73195.66201.53
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.74%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.99136.14145.62155.44165.59176.09186.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)126.82128.08129.33
Year 2 PV (M)126.37128.88131.42
Year 3 PV (M)125.65129.41133.26
Year 4 PV (M)124.69129.70134.86
Year 5 PV (M)123.52129.75136.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,965.294,165.414,373.54
Equity Value (M)4,592.344,811.245,038.64
Shares Outstanding (M)8,407.848,407.848,407.84
Fair Value$0.55$0.57$0.60
Upside / Downside1.56%6.40%11.43%

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