Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Jiangnan Water Co., Ltd. (601199.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.51 - $86.32$80.89
Multi-Stage$13.37 - $14.64$13.99
Blended Fair Value$47.44
Current Price$5.58
Upside750.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.31%12.11%0.150.090.090.080.080.070.080.110.090.06
YoY Growth--65.54%0.00%12.50%0.00%14.29%-12.50%-27.27%22.22%56.52%21.05%
Dividend Yield--2.82%1.85%1.16%1.19%1.90%1.89%1.84%2.22%1.11%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)405.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)282.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.1850.7330.44
Cash Retained (M)282.48282.48282.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.18-50.73-30.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.31231.75252.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)935.12935.12935.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.51$80.89$86.32
Upside / Downside697.73%1,349.71%1,446.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)405.88432.26460.36490.28522.15556.09572.77
Payout Ratio30.40%42.32%54.24%66.16%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.40182.94249.70324.37407.70500.48529.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)170.45172.06173.68
Year 2 PV (M)216.76220.89225.06
Year 3 PV (M)262.35269.88277.55
Year 4 PV (M)307.21319.03331.18
Year 5 PV (M)351.37368.34385.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,193.7511,734.4112,295.76
Equity Value (M)12,501.8813,084.6013,689.19
Shares Outstanding (M)935.12935.12935.12
Fair Value$13.37$13.99$14.64
Upside / Downside139.59%150.76%162.35%

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