Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Company Limited (601137.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.93 - $257.66$241.46
Multi-Stage$35.11 - $38.41$36.73
Blended Fair Value$139.10
Current Price$25.83
Upside438.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.26%24.55%0.540.340.270.270.230.060.160.100.060.06
YoY Growth--56.37%25.47%0.06%21.83%302.18%-65.28%54.59%68.18%1.38%2.11%
Dividend Yield--2.68%1.87%1.75%1.74%2.11%0.46%1.68%1.00%0.46%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,136.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)490.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)646.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)227.33142.0885.25
Cash Retained (M)646.12646.12646.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-227.33-142.08-85.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)418.79504.04560.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)877.35877.35877.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.570.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.93$241.46$257.66
Upside / Downside228.80%834.81%897.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,136.671,210.551,289.241,373.041,462.291,557.341,604.06
Payout Ratio43.16%52.53%61.89%71.26%80.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)490.55635.85797.96978.471,179.061,401.601,483.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)589.84595.43601.02
Year 2 PV (M)686.67699.75712.95
Year 3 PV (M)781.07803.50826.34
Year 4 PV (M)873.10906.68941.22
Year 5 PV (M)962.801,009.311,057.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,910.3528,210.1329,559.65
Equity Value (M)30,803.8432,224.7933,698.78
Shares Outstanding (M)877.35877.35877.35
Fair Value$35.11$36.73$38.41
Upside / Downside35.93%42.20%48.70%

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