Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seres Group Co.,Ltd. (601127.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.81 - $60.51$50.22
Multi-Stage$35.24 - $38.29$36.74
Blended Fair Value$43.48
Current Price$171.57
Upside-74.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.90%12.31%0.400.160.180.160.210.270.290.260.000.07
YoY Growth--150.41%-11.17%9.24%-22.76%-22.05%-7.37%12.38%0.00%-100.00%-46.43%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.18%0.47%0.38%0.91%3.39%1.75%1.38%0.00%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,220.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,200.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,020.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,444.07902.55541.53
Cash Retained (M)5,020.105,020.105,020.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,444.07-902.55-541.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,576.034,117.554,478.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,533.471,533.471,533.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.332.692.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.332.692.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.774.124.36
WACC / Discount Rate15.24%15.24%15.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.81$50.22$60.51
Upside / Downside-76.21%-70.73%-64.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,220.377,689.698,189.528,721.849,288.769,892.5310,189.31
Payout Ratio30.47%42.38%54.28%66.19%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,200.273,258.774,445.595,772.927,254.028,903.289,425.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.24%15.24%15.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,801.322,827.882,854.43
Year 2 PV (M)3,285.093,347.663,410.82
Year 3 PV (M)3,667.103,772.373,879.63
Year 4 PV (M)3,961.094,113.424,270.11
Year 5 PV (M)4,179.224,381.074,590.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,152.4737,898.6439,711.65
Equity Value (M)54,046.2856,341.0458,717.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,533.471,533.471,533.47
Fair Value$35.24$36.74$38.29
Upside / Downside-79.46%-78.59%-77.68%

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