Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. (601020.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.38 - $52.88$33.95
Multi-Stage$16.45 - $17.98$17.20
Blended Fair Value$25.57
Current Price$27.31
Upside-6.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.03%9.44%0.080.040.030.030.030.090.110.110.070.06
YoY Growth--104.63%23.38%16.13%-5.63%-65.68%-21.60%-1.00%68.62%11.11%78.57%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.46%0.32%0.23%0.50%1.55%1.35%0.94%0.28%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)901.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)844.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)180.34112.7267.63
Cash Retained (M)844.35844.35844.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-180.34-112.72-67.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)664.01731.64776.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)779.55779.55779.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.941.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.941.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.38$33.95$52.88
Upside / Downside-14.38%24.30%93.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)901.72960.341,022.761,089.241,160.041,235.441,272.50
Payout Ratio6.36%23.09%39.82%56.54%73.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.37221.74407.24615.91849.991,111.891,177.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)200.28202.18204.08
Year 2 PV (M)332.23338.55344.94
Year 3 PV (M)453.84466.86480.14
Year 4 PV (M)565.70587.46609.84
Year 5 PV (M)668.40700.68734.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,599.9711,111.9611,643.53
Equity Value (M)12,820.4213,407.6914,016.73
Shares Outstanding (M)779.55779.55779.55
Fair Value$16.45$17.20$17.98
Upside / Downside-39.78%-37.02%-34.16%

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