Definitive Analysis
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CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.01 - $74.73$46.00
Multi-Stage$8.96 - $9.80$9.37
Blended Fair Value$27.68
Current Price$3.84
Upside620.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.80%21.03%0.120.090.060.050.050.050.030.130.180.49
YoY Growth--28.28%58.46%26.49%-0.02%-11.77%91.57%-79.36%-29.25%-62.92%2,767.61%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.59%1.73%1.72%1.70%2.25%0.91%4.40%6.23%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,820.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,415.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,405.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.07477.54286.52
Cash Retained (M)2,405.142,405.142,405.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.07-477.54-286.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,641.081,927.602,118.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,166.5510,166.5510,166.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.01$46.00$74.73
Upside / Downside368.93%1,097.85%1,846.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,820.334,068.654,333.114,614.764,914.725,234.185,391.21
Payout Ratio37.04%47.63%58.23%68.82%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,415.181,938.092,523.003,175.763,902.724,710.764,986.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,789.921,806.891,823.85
Year 2 PV (M)2,151.972,192.962,234.34
Year 3 PV (M)2,501.652,573.472,646.64
Year 4 PV (M)2,839.272,948.463,060.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,165.123,318.003,476.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,629.5482,427.3786,370.56
Equity Value (M)91,077.4895,267.1599,612.89
Shares Outstanding (M)10,166.5510,166.5510,166.55
Fair Value$8.96$9.37$9.80
Upside / Downside133.30%144.03%155.16%

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