Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (600917.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.42 - $8.87$5.19
Multi-Stage$3.05 - $3.34$3.20
Blended Fair Value$4.20
Current Price$5.70
Upside-26.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.77%-3.29%0.120.140.140.080.080.070.120.120.140.13
YoY Growth---10.50%-0.23%61.71%2.73%12.43%-38.46%-2.03%-15.37%13.12%-25.62%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.18%1.81%1.18%0.71%1.15%1.58%1.54%1.18%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.5932.2519.35
Cash Retained (M)210.35210.35210.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.59-32.25-19.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.75178.10191.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$3.42$5.19$8.87
Upside / Downside-39.97%-8.88%55.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.97270.64283.93297.87312.49327.84337.67
Payout Ratio18.46%32.77%47.08%61.38%75.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6288.68133.66182.84236.53295.05312.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)81.6582.4383.22
Year 2 PV (M)113.30115.49117.70
Year 3 PV (M)142.70146.86151.10
Year 4 PV (M)169.96176.60183.43
Year 5 PV (M)195.19204.77214.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,512.844,734.214,964.18
Equity Value (M)5,215.645,460.365,714.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
Fair Value$3.05$3.20$3.34
Upside / Downside-46.44%-43.93%-41.32%

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