Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Inner Mongolia MengDian HuaNeng Thermal Power Corporation Limited (600863.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.40 - $10.99$7.55
Multi-Stage$5.74 - $6.29$6.01
Blended Fair Value$6.78
Current Price$4.09
Upside65.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.25%3.16%0.240.160.100.110.110.080.030.020.070.16
YoY Growth--48.16%64.00%-10.82%0.00%31.25%220.04%30.44%-72.56%-53.44%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--6.03%3.47%2.96%3.58%4.05%3.26%0.89%0.75%2.20%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,063.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,759.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)412.71257.94154.77
Cash Retained (M)1,759.301,759.301,759.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-412.71-257.94-154.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,346.591,501.361,604.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Fair Value$5.40$7.55$10.99
Upside / Downside31.98%84.65%168.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,063.552,146.932,233.672,323.922,417.812,515.502,590.96
Payout Ratio14.74%29.80%44.85%59.90%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.25639.681,001.721,391.971,812.122,263.952,396.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)587.77593.47599.17
Year 2 PV (M)845.71862.21878.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,079.801,111.551,143.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,291.631,342.511,394.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,482.711,556.071,632.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,787.0634,409.2336,094.97
Equity Value (M)38,074.6939,875.0341,744.09
Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
Fair Value$5.74$6.01$6.29
Upside / Downside40.23%46.86%53.74%

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