Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Changhong Electric Co.,Ltd. (600839.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.29 - $31.31$13.95
Multi-Stage$15.89 - $17.48$16.67
Blended Fair Value$15.31
Current Price$10.47
Upside46.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.25%3.73%0.220.230.180.010.250.320.300.210.110.09
YoY Growth---3.47%23.84%1,733.96%-95.92%-23.24%8.18%39.34%85.39%27.53%-41.05%
Dividend Yield--2.13%4.03%3.89%0.34%9.46%11.78%8.02%6.77%2.69%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,366.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)872.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273.36170.85102.51
Cash Retained (M)872.34872.34872.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-273.36-170.85-102.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)598.98701.49769.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Fair Value$8.29$13.95$31.31
Upside / Downside-20.86%33.25%199.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,366.791,404.101,442.431,481.811,522.271,563.821,610.74
Payout Ratio36.18%46.94%57.71%68.47%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.45659.10832.371,014.601,206.171,407.441,489.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate1.73%2.73%3.73%
Year 1 PV (M)623.76629.89636.02
Year 2 PV (M)745.50760.23775.10
Year 3 PV (M)859.99885.60911.72
Year 4 PV (M)967.551,006.161,045.91
Year 5 PV (M)1,068.471,122.021,177.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,091.9372,555.2076,155.97
Equity Value (M)73,357.1976,959.1080,702.43
Shares Outstanding (M)4,617.854,617.854,617.85
Fair Value$15.89$16.67$17.48
Upside / Downside51.72%59.17%66.92%

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