Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co., Ltd. (600819.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.87 - $1.20$1.03
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.74$1.66
Blended Fair Value$1.35
Current Price$7.08
Upside-80.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.18%-10.60%0.060.040.070.090.110.090.090.160.180.15
YoY Growth--40.29%-33.68%-28.95%-14.16%28.08%-4.82%-44.09%-13.00%23.03%-21.24%
Dividend Yield--1.22%0.86%1.13%1.66%2.23%1.78%1.51%3.13%2.22%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.7517.9710.78
Cash Retained (M)102.66102.66102.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.75-17.97-10.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.9184.6991.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)906.49906.49906.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-4.79%-3.79%-2.79%
Fair Value$0.87$1.03$1.20
Upside / Downside-87.73%-85.39%-83.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.77138.32133.09128.05123.20118.54122.10
Payout Ratio28.59%40.87%53.16%65.44%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.1156.5470.7483.7995.75106.69112.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-4.79%-3.79%-2.79%
Year 1 PV (M)51.2851.8152.35
Year 2 PV (M)58.1859.4160.65
Year 3 PV (M)62.5064.4966.52
Year 4 PV (M)64.7767.5470.39
Year 5 PV (M)65.4568.9672.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,132.131,192.841,256.13
Equity Value (M)1,434.311,505.051,578.67
Shares Outstanding (M)906.49906.49906.49
Fair Value$1.58$1.66$1.74
Upside / Downside-77.65%-76.55%-75.40%

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