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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Department Store Co.,Ltd. (600729.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.70 - $33.02$27.70
Multi-Stage$62.72 - $69.29$65.94
Blended Fair Value$46.82
Current Price$26.55
Upside76.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.78%8.75%1.500.713.483.400.760.520.550.560.360.69
YoY Growth--111.44%-79.57%2.29%350.05%46.15%-6.13%-1.56%55.73%-48.17%6.72%
Dividend Yield--4.98%2.65%12.82%13.01%2.50%1.86%1.46%1.90%1.35%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,382.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)300.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,081.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)276.56172.85103.71
Cash Retained (M)1,081.951,081.951,081.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-276.56-172.85-103.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)805.39909.10978.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)438.74438.74438.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.842.072.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.842.072.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.43%-3.43%-2.43%
Fair Value$22.70$27.70$33.02
Upside / Downside-14.49%4.34%24.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,382.811,335.331,289.481,245.201,202.451,161.161,196.00
Payout Ratio21.76%35.41%49.05%62.70%76.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)300.85472.78632.54780.78918.091,045.051,106.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-4.43%-3.43%-2.43%
Year 1 PV (M)440.65445.26449.87
Year 2 PV (M)549.49561.05572.73
Year 3 PV (M)632.17652.22672.70
Year 4 PV (M)692.83722.29752.67
Year 5 PV (M)735.05774.32815.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,468.3125,775.5527,138.08
Equity Value (M)27,518.5028,930.6930,401.31
Shares Outstanding (M)438.74438.74438.74
Fair Value$62.72$65.94$69.29
Upside / Downside136.24%148.36%160.99%

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