Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd. (600684.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.12$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.21 - $0.23$0.22
Blended Fair Value$0.16
Current Price$6.32
Upside-97.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-48.43%-18.18%0.030.791.701.911.020.910.930.650.490.41
YoY Growth---95.78%-53.52%-10.98%86.19%12.25%-1.96%43.10%33.92%19.65%63.87%
Dividend Yield--0.98%26.39%47.16%39.57%35.94%29.34%17.56%10.61%7.30%6.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.994.372.62
Cash Retained (M)20.7220.7220.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.99-4.37-2.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7316.3518.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.09816.09816.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-20.18%-19.18%-18.18%
Fair Value$0.09$0.11$0.12
Upside / Downside-98.51%-98.29%-98.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.9328.2322.8218.4414.9012.0412.40
Payout Ratio40.70%50.56%60.42%70.28%80.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2214.2713.7812.9611.9410.8411.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-20.18%-19.18%-18.18%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9613.1213.28
Year 2 PV (M)11.3611.6411.93
Year 3 PV (M)9.6910.0610.44
Year 4 PV (M)8.118.528.95
Year 5 PV (M)6.687.117.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)121.94129.77138.00
Equity Value (M)170.74180.23190.17
Shares Outstanding (M)816.09816.09816.09
Fair Value$0.21$0.22$0.23
Upside / Downside-96.69%-96.51%-96.31%

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