Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.,Ltd. (600674.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.15 - $103.03$44.46
Multi-Stage$16.08 - $17.60$16.82
Blended Fair Value$30.64
Current Price$14.28
Upside114.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.28%32.78%0.510.370.360.340.310.270.250.270.240.14
YoY Growth--38.06%1.21%5.30%11.86%13.33%9.09%-8.33%11.11%80.00%356.50%
Dividend Yield--3.15%2.23%2.74%3.20%2.45%2.95%2.64%2.98%2.70%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,307.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)374.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,932.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)861.42538.39323.03
Cash Retained (M)3,932.463,932.463,932.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-861.42-538.39-323.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,071.043,394.083,609.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.15$44.46$103.03
Upside / Downside83.13%211.31%621.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,307.114,587.074,885.235,202.775,540.955,901.116,078.14
Payout Ratio8.70%24.96%41.22%57.48%73.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)374.641,144.872,013.642,990.514,085.885,311.005,622.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,046.691,056.611,066.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,683.081,715.131,747.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,285.222,350.822,417.67
Year 4 PV (M)2,854.492,964.273,077.18
Year 5 PV (M)3,392.203,556.043,726.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,081.2570,321.3073,685.35
Equity Value (M)78,342.9281,964.1785,720.38
Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
Fair Value$16.08$16.82$17.60
Upside / Downside12.61%17.82%23.22%

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