Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Leshan Electric Power Co.,Ltd (600644.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.37 - $0.54$0.45
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.77$0.73
Blended Fair Value$0.59
Current Price$10.80
Upside-94.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-11.35%0.050.050.050.070.000.000.040.030.030.06
YoY Growth--11.20%-9.96%-24.12%0.00%0.00%-100.00%42.20%-16.23%-41.17%-68.40%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.79%0.74%1.13%0.00%0.00%0.59%0.44%0.34%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.373.352.01
Cash Retained (M)2.732.732.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.37-3.35-2.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.63-0.620.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.26566.26566.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.37$0.45$0.54
Upside / Downside-96.59%-95.82%-94.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.8326.5726.3026.0425.7825.5226.29
Payout Ratio89.82%89.86%89.89%89.93%89.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.1023.8723.6423.4223.1922.9724.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.8622.0822.31
Year 2 PV (M)19.8220.2320.64
Year 3 PV (M)17.9818.5319.10
Year 4 PV (M)16.3116.9817.68
Year 5 PV (M)14.7915.5616.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)306.77322.75339.38
Equity Value (M)397.53416.13435.46
Shares Outstanding (M)566.26566.26566.26
Fair Value$0.70$0.73$0.77
Upside / Downside-93.50%-93.20%-92.88%

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