Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shinva Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (600587.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.60 - $45.28$27.67
Multi-Stage$12.77 - $13.96$13.36
Blended Fair Value$20.52
Current Price$16.03
Upside27.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.24%11.18%0.550.170.160.220.310.030.370.380.310.27
YoY Growth--216.98%7.06%-24.65%-29.79%902.10%-91.67%-3.88%23.93%14.10%41.71%
Dividend Yield--3.43%0.98%0.76%1.13%3.05%0.23%3.08%3.12%1.66%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)508.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)478.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.7863.6138.17
Cash Retained (M)478.78478.78478.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.78-63.61-38.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.99415.16440.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)596.16596.16596.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.60$27.67$45.28
Upside / Downside16.01%72.64%182.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)508.92542.00577.23614.75654.71697.26718.18
Payout Ratio5.92%22.74%39.55%56.37%73.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.14123.24228.31346.53479.14627.54664.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.62112.68113.74
Year 2 PV (M)187.29190.85194.46
Year 3 PV (M)257.45264.84272.37
Year 4 PV (M)322.41334.81347.57
Year 5 PV (M)382.45400.92420.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,351.306,658.076,976.59
Equity Value (M)7,612.537,962.188,324.82
Shares Outstanding (M)596.16596.16596.16
Fair Value$12.77$13.36$13.96
Upside / Downside-20.34%-16.68%-12.89%

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