Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huaihe Energy (Group) Co.,Ltd (600575.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.39 - $3.93$3.08
Multi-Stage$1.94 - $2.12$2.03
Blended Fair Value$2.55
Current Price$3.36
Upside-24.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.52%19.19%0.180.050.030.040.150.060.070.070.080.11
YoY Growth--228.06%78.28%-24.71%-72.22%154.66%-17.93%-1.84%-8.23%-26.75%242.99%
Dividend Yield--5.32%2.05%1.25%1.24%6.46%2.62%2.43%1.91%1.32%2.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)767.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.5595.9757.58
Cash Retained (M)607.76607.76607.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.55-95.97-57.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.22511.80550.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,843.943,843.943,843.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate12.55%12.55%12.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.39$3.08$3.93
Upside / Downside-28.82%-8.42%17.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)767.74817.64870.79927.39987.671,051.871,083.43
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.33%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.98283.47422.35578.09752.28946.681,002.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.55%12.55%12.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)249.50251.87254.23
Year 2 PV (M)327.19333.42339.71
Year 3 PV (M)394.17405.48417.01
Year 4 PV (M)451.47468.84486.70
Year 5 PV (M)500.06524.21549.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,543.925,811.696,089.71
Equity Value (M)7,466.317,795.518,136.65
Shares Outstanding (M)3,843.943,843.943,843.94
Fair Value$1.94$2.03$2.12
Upside / Downside-42.19%-39.64%-37.00%

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