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Definitive Analysis

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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. (600559.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.84 - $139.13$130.39
Multi-Stage$22.46 - $24.57$23.50
Blended Fair Value$76.94
Current Price$17.20
Upside347.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.44%34.62%0.450.300.160.230.150.150.110.070.060.05
YoY Growth--49.44%95.12%-32.46%58.76%-0.66%30.84%57.69%13.13%23.72%117.90%
Dividend Yield--2.48%1.55%0.42%1.15%0.69%1.72%0.76%0.53%0.50%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)631.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)224.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.2378.8947.34
Cash Retained (M)224.86224.86224.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.23-78.89-47.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.63145.97177.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.160.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.84$130.39$139.13
Upside / Downside352.55%658.07%708.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)631.14672.16715.86762.39811.94864.72890.66
Payout Ratio64.37%69.50%74.62%79.75%84.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.28467.14534.19607.99689.13778.25823.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)435.50439.62443.75
Year 2 PV (M)464.28473.12482.05
Year 3 PV (M)492.62506.77521.18
Year 4 PV (M)520.54540.56561.15
Year 5 PV (M)548.04574.51601.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,804.1218,664.0619,556.92
Equity Value (M)20,265.1021,198.6522,167.04
Shares Outstanding (M)902.15902.15902.15
Fair Value$22.46$23.50$24.57
Upside / Downside30.60%36.62%42.86%

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