Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group) Co., Ltd (600496.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.66 - $56.19$29.80
Multi-Stage$8.22 - $9.00$8.60
Blended Fair Value$19.20
Current Price$3.61
Upside431.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.68%1.20%0.110.090.090.110.080.080.080.060.070.10
YoY Growth--20.23%3.29%-16.96%29.76%-1.47%5.86%40.73%-23.13%-24.04%-1.71%
Dividend Yield--3.43%3.21%2.22%2.33%1.51%2.09%2.17%1.55%1.62%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)627.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)266.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)360.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.4478.4047.04
Cash Retained (M)360.25360.25360.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.44-78.40-47.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.80281.85313.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,200.082,200.082,200.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$12.66$29.80$56.19
Upside / Downside250.68%725.62%1,456.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)627.21661.94698.59737.27778.09821.17845.81
Payout Ratio42.56%52.05%61.54%71.03%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)266.96344.55429.90523.65626.46739.06782.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)320.69323.76326.83
Year 2 PV (M)372.43379.59386.82
Year 3 PV (M)422.25434.48446.95
Year 4 PV (M)470.18488.43507.20
Year 5 PV (M)516.28541.45567.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,979.7516,758.8217,567.99
Equity Value (M)18,081.5718,926.5319,803.38
Shares Outstanding (M)2,200.082,200.082,200.08
Fair Value$8.22$8.60$9.00
Upside / Downside127.66%138.30%149.34%

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