Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Pengxin International Mining Co.,Ltd (600490.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.23 - $0.30$0.27
Multi-Stage$0.41 - $0.46$0.44
Blended Fair Value$0.35
Current Price$6.69
Upside-94.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.48%-3.51%0.010.010.010.080.030.070.060.030.010.01
YoY Growth--27.64%-9.25%-85.89%173.31%-60.95%20.35%101.80%135.09%0.36%-29.99%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.34%0.32%1.74%0.74%2.01%0.96%0.32%0.16%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.8631.7919.07
Cash Retained (M)244.06244.06244.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.86-31.79-19.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)193.20212.27224.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,212.952,212.952,212.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-21.07%-20.07%-19.07%
Fair Value$0.23$0.27$0.30
Upside / Downside-96.49%-95.98%-95.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.32203.27162.46129.85103.7982.9585.44
Payout Ratio4.03%21.23%38.42%55.61%72.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2643.1562.4272.2175.5674.6679.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-21.07%-20.07%-19.07%
Year 1 PV (M)38.7939.2839.78
Year 2 PV (M)50.4651.7453.05
Year 3 PV (M)52.4954.5156.58
Year 4 PV (M)49.3851.9354.58
Year 5 PV (M)43.8646.7149.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)679.71723.87770.30
Equity Value (M)914.68968.051,023.99
Shares Outstanding (M)2,212.952,212.952,212.95
Fair Value$0.41$0.44$0.46
Upside / Downside-93.82%-93.46%-93.08%

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