Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bluestar Adisseo Company (600299.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.18 - $4.63$3.89
Multi-Stage$8.55 - $9.43$8.98
Blended Fair Value$6.43
Current Price$9.41
Upside-31.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.56%-4.02%0.100.190.180.170.150.270.180.230.150.16
YoY Growth---46.34%10.05%1.14%12.82%-43.48%53.92%-23.45%52.93%-6.47%3.35%
Dividend Yield--0.98%2.18%2.00%1.77%1.11%2.34%1.40%1.72%1.08%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,191.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)557.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)633.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)238.29148.9389.36
Cash Retained (M)633.70633.70633.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-238.29-148.93-89.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.41484.77544.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.982,707.982,707.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-4.23%-3.23%-2.23%
Fair Value$3.18$3.89$4.63
Upside / Downside-66.16%-58.69%-50.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,191.431,152.951,115.701,079.661,044.791,011.041,041.37
Payout Ratio46.81%55.45%64.09%72.72%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)557.73639.30715.02785.18850.06909.93963.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-4.23%-3.23%-2.23%
Year 1 PV (M)594.89601.11607.32
Year 2 PV (M)619.14632.13645.26
Year 3 PV (M)632.66652.68673.13
Year 4 PV (M)637.36664.40692.29
Year 5 PV (M)634.86668.70703.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,034.9521,103.0222,216.16
Equity Value (M)23,153.8524,322.0425,538.13
Shares Outstanding (M)2,707.982,707.982,707.98
Fair Value$8.55$8.98$9.43
Upside / Downside-9.14%-4.55%0.22%

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