Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. (600210.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.81 - $21.60$15.86
Multi-Stage$18.75 - $20.62$19.67
Blended Fair Value$17.76
Current Price$7.40
Upside140.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.55%1.31%0.310.330.340.330.290.260.270.230.180.21
YoY Growth---6.47%-1.24%1.92%15.78%9.21%-3.08%16.08%29.57%-13.06%-24.50%
Dividend Yield--4.45%6.35%5.95%5.57%5.98%6.25%5.58%5.00%3.32%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,246.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,182.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)249.39155.8793.52
Cash Retained (M)1,182.151,182.151,182.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-249.39-155.87-93.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)932.761,026.281,088.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,515.561,515.561,515.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Fair Value$11.81$15.86$21.60
Upside / Downside59.53%114.30%191.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,246.941,270.891,295.291,320.171,345.531,371.371,412.51
Payout Ratio5.20%22.16%39.12%56.08%73.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.79281.58506.69740.33982.761,234.231,306.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Year 1 PV (M)261.69264.28266.87
Year 2 PV (M)437.61446.33455.13
Year 3 PV (M)594.22612.06630.26
Year 4 PV (M)733.07762.57792.94
Year 5 PV (M)855.60898.84943.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,532.9826,823.3028,165.27
Equity Value (M)28,415.1829,807.3831,254.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,515.561,515.561,515.56
Fair Value$18.75$19.67$20.62
Upside / Downside153.36%165.78%178.68%

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