Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd. (600171.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.61 - $20.47$13.66
Multi-Stage$7.15 - $7.80$7.47
Blended Fair Value$10.56
Current Price$37.05
Upside-71.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.28%18.06%0.100.200.200.130.110.050.080.020.020.02
YoY Growth---50.16%0.02%53.76%19.44%132.24%-40.43%315.32%-20.00%25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.29%1.59%0.95%0.67%0.73%0.29%0.51%0.13%0.18%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)361.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.2545.1527.09
Cash Retained (M)240.62240.62240.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.25-45.15-27.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.37195.46213.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.61$13.66$20.47
Upside / Downside-74.07%-63.13%-44.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)361.23384.71409.71436.35464.71494.91509.76
Payout Ratio33.39%44.71%56.03%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.61172.01229.58293.90365.62445.42471.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.94156.41157.88
Year 2 PV (M)186.27189.82193.40
Year 3 PV (M)214.80220.97227.25
Year 4 PV (M)240.70249.96259.48
Year 5 PV (M)264.14276.90290.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,009.514,203.174,404.24
Equity Value (M)5,070.375,297.235,532.40
Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
Fair Value$7.15$7.47$7.80
Upside / Downside-80.71%-79.85%-78.95%

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