Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.,Ltd. (600103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.20 - $0.28$0.24
Multi-Stage$0.34 - $0.37$0.35
Blended Fair Value$0.29
Current Price$3.68
Upside-91.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.25%-4.30%0.030.060.010.010.010.010.020.030.030.04
YoY Growth---54.03%642.58%-46.32%-0.68%6.94%-12.92%-38.84%-17.71%-17.43%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.21%2.69%0.30%0.55%0.67%0.68%0.61%0.92%0.78%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.607.884.73
Cash Retained (M)22.3822.3822.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.60-7.88-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.7714.5017.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,210.142,210.142,210.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.22%-1.22%-0.22%
Fair Value$0.20$0.24$0.28
Upside / Downside-94.67%-93.54%-92.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.0062.2461.4860.7359.9959.2561.03
Payout Ratio64.49%69.59%74.69%79.79%84.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.6343.3145.9248.4650.9353.3356.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.22%-1.22%-0.22%
Year 1 PV (M)39.2839.6840.08
Year 2 PV (M)37.7738.5439.33
Year 3 PV (M)36.1437.2638.41
Year 4 PV (M)34.4535.8837.35
Year 5 PV (M)32.7234.4236.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)563.16592.55623.15
Equity Value (M)743.51778.34814.52
Shares Outstanding (M)2,210.142,210.142,210.14
Fair Value$0.34$0.35$0.37
Upside / Downside-90.86%-90.43%-89.99%

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