Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsinghua Tongfang Co.,Ltd. (600100.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.57 - $0.77$0.67
Multi-Stage$1.48 - $1.63$1.55
Blended Fair Value$1.11
Current Price$8.11
Upside-86.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.40%-7.97%0.150.260.350.390.410.400.370.450.350.39
YoY Growth---41.59%-24.82%-10.27%-3.90%1.52%9.43%-19.06%30.26%-10.19%9.41%
Dividend Yield--1.98%3.91%4.49%7.05%7.18%5.02%2.89%4.33%2.54%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)395.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.0849.4229.65
Cash Retained (M)83.4483.4483.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.08-49.42-29.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.3734.0253.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.333,253.333,253.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-8.12%-7.12%-6.12%
Fair Value$0.57$0.67$0.77
Upside / Downside-92.98%-91.71%-90.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)395.39367.24341.09316.80294.25273.30281.49
Payout Ratio78.90%81.12%83.34%85.56%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.94297.89284.25271.05258.29245.97260.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate-8.12%-7.12%-6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)273.94276.92279.90
Year 2 PV (M)240.39245.65250.97
Year 3 PV (M)210.79217.75224.86
Year 4 PV (M)184.72192.89201.33
Year 5 PV (M)161.76170.76180.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,745.963,954.294,171.80
Equity Value (M)4,817.565,058.265,309.01
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.333,253.333,253.33
Fair Value$1.48$1.55$1.63
Upside / Downside-81.74%-80.83%-79.88%

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