Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$178.16 - $209.91$196.71
Multi-Stage$118.64 - $130.21$124.32
Blended Fair Value$160.51
Current Price$17.80
Upside801.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.35%6.63%0.481.170.780.150.450.430.400.310.300.27
YoY Growth---59.05%49.13%405.47%-65.31%4.89%6.85%30.19%1.95%11.58%6.89%
Dividend Yield--3.97%7.49%4.68%0.99%5.18%7.57%6.08%4.51%3.61%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,321.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)938.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,383.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,064.33665.21399.12
Cash Retained (M)4,383.114,383.114,383.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,064.33-665.21-399.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,318.783,717.913,983.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,041.955,041.955,041.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.740.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.740.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate2.69%2.69%2.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$178.16$196.71$209.91
Upside / Downside900.92%1,005.14%1,079.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,321.655,667.566,035.956,428.296,846.137,291.127,509.86
Payout Ratio17.64%32.11%46.58%61.05%75.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)938.541,819.802,811.653,924.765,170.696,562.016,946.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.69%2.69%2.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,755.491,772.131,788.77
Year 2 PV (M)2,616.462,666.302,716.60
Year 3 PV (M)3,523.243,624.383,727.44
Year 4 PV (M)4,477.694,649.894,827.01
Year 5 PV (M)5,481.755,746.526,021.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)580,304.30608,333.21637,434.86
Equity Value (M)598,158.94626,792.44656,516.11
Shares Outstanding (M)5,041.955,041.955,041.95
Fair Value$118.64$124.32$130.21
Upside / Downside566.50%598.40%631.52%

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