Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Dongfeng Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (600081.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.86$0.73
Multi-Stage$0.99 - $1.09$1.04
Blended Fair Value$0.89
Current Price$12.93
Upside-93.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.55%-11.31%0.100.120.180.090.180.100.120.130.250.37
YoY Growth---13.40%-37.21%106.48%-51.52%78.71%-11.43%-9.32%-48.84%-32.15%11.08%
Dividend Yield--0.67%1.04%1.72%0.81%1.70%1.02%1.17%1.08%1.76%2.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.486.553.93
Cash Retained (M)30.5130.5130.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.48-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.0323.9626.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)552.93552.93552.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate-2.55%-1.55%-0.55%
Fair Value$0.61$0.73$0.86
Upside / Downside-95.29%-94.33%-93.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.3951.5850.7849.9949.2248.4649.91
Payout Ratio41.77%51.41%61.06%70.71%80.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.8826.5231.0135.3539.5543.6146.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate-2.55%-1.55%-0.55%
Year 1 PV (M)23.9624.2024.45
Year 2 PV (M)25.3025.8226.35
Year 3 PV (M)26.0626.8727.69
Year 4 PV (M)26.3327.4328.56
Year 5 PV (M)26.2327.6029.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)422.09444.20467.22
Equity Value (M)549.97576.12603.31
Shares Outstanding (M)552.93552.93552.93
Fair Value$0.99$1.04$1.09
Upside / Downside-92.31%-91.94%-91.56%

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