Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.,Ltd (600059.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.27 - $6.10$4.42
Multi-Stage$4.44 - $4.87$4.65
Blended Fair Value$4.54
Current Price$9.56
Upside-52.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.56%4.76%0.140.080.080.050.090.090.090.090.000.07
YoY Growth--75.00%-0.01%59.94%-43.63%0.05%-0.07%-0.03%7,547.62%-98.36%-19.30%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.85%0.74%0.50%0.75%1.18%1.04%1.03%0.01%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1625.7215.43
Cash Retained (M)132.87132.87132.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.16-25.72-15.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.71107.15117.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.16944.16944.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$3.27$4.42$6.10
Upside / Downside-65.83%-53.74%-36.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.79211.48217.33223.34229.52235.87242.94
Payout Ratio35.44%46.35%57.26%68.17%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.9298.02124.45152.26181.52212.28224.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)90.5591.4492.33
Year 2 PV (M)106.20108.30110.42
Year 3 PV (M)120.03123.61127.25
Year 4 PV (M)132.19137.46142.89
Year 5 PV (M)142.81149.97157.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,601.983,782.473,970.12
Equity Value (M)4,193.764,393.244,600.41
Shares Outstanding (M)944.16944.16944.16
Fair Value$4.44$4.65$4.87
Upside / Downside-53.54%-51.33%-49.03%

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