Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

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Sector

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd. (600010.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.31 - $4.45$4.17
Multi-Stage$0.72 - $0.78$0.75
Blended Fair Value$2.46
Current Price$2.38
Upside3.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.35%23.21%0.030.000.000.000.040.010.010.040.040.03
YoY Growth--38,942.06%19.84%5.09%-99.83%460.29%35.11%-86.44%2.96%5.67%757.83%
Dividend Yield--1.79%0.01%0.00%0.00%2.44%0.59%0.27%1.69%1.67%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,013.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)909.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.73126.7176.02
Cash Retained (M)104.29104.29104.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.73-126.71-76.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)-98.43-22.4128.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,285.8545,285.8545,285.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.31$4.17$4.45
Upside / Downside-3.02%75.28%87.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,013.651,079.531,149.701,224.431,304.021,388.781,430.45
Payout Ratio89.71%89.77%89.83%89.88%89.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)909.35969.081,032.741,100.571,172.871,249.911,323.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)902.93911.49920.05
Year 2 PV (M)896.56913.64930.87
Year 3 PV (M)890.23915.78941.82
Year 4 PV (M)883.94917.94952.90
Year 5 PV (M)877.70920.10964.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,999.1129,351.4830,755.61
Equity Value (M)32,450.4833,930.4335,465.37
Shares Outstanding (M)45,285.8545,285.8545,285.85
Fair Value$0.72$0.75$0.78
Upside / Downside-69.89%-68.52%-67.09%

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