Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co., Ltd. (600004.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.89 - $5.56$4.71
Multi-Stage$8.94 - $9.86$9.39
Blended Fair Value$7.05
Current Price$9.48
Upside-25.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.92%-8.44%0.080.010.020.040.130.150.210.230.160.14
YoY Growth--1,297.02%-72.98%-53.38%-66.64%-14.71%-29.17%-5.95%43.30%10.49%-21.62%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.05%0.13%0.35%0.96%1.20%1.41%1.44%1.43%1.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,353.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)973.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.74169.21101.53
Cash Retained (M)973.12973.12973.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.74-169.21-101.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)702.37803.90871.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,343.852,343.852,343.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Fair Value$3.89$4.71$5.56
Upside / Downside-59.01%-50.34%-41.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,353.721,309.431,266.601,225.171,185.091,146.321,180.71
Payout Ratio28.12%40.49%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.60530.22669.64799.37919.901,031.691,092.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)489.90495.01500.13
Year 2 PV (M)571.66583.67595.80
Year 3 PV (M)630.52650.49670.87
Year 4 PV (M)670.41698.86728.21
Year 5 PV (M)694.70731.75770.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,885.4518,839.3519,833.52
Equity Value (M)20,942.6421,999.1323,098.89
Shares Outstanding (M)2,343.852,343.852,343.85
Fair Value$8.94$9.39$9.86
Upside / Downside-5.75%-0.99%3.96%

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