Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lion Corporation (4912.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$898.44 - $1,499.09$1,162.94
Multi-Stage$1,183.36 - $1,296.72$1,238.97
Blended Fair Value$1,200.96
Current Price$1,490.00
Upside-19.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.64%10.49%26.3326.6824.9125.2023.0920.9920.9815.7310.449.61
YoY Growth---1.30%7.11%-1.13%9.12%10.02%0.02%33.36%50.74%8.61%-1.04%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.94%1.74%1.85%1.07%0.91%0.90%0.73%0.52%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,876.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,509.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,367.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,175.202,609.501,565.70
Cash Retained (M)13,367.0013,367.0013,367.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,175.20-2,609.50-1,565.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,191.8010,757.5011,801.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
LTM Dividend per Share27.1327.1327.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.2138.8742.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.3465.9969.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$898.44$1,162.94$1,499.09
Upside / Downside-39.70%-21.95%0.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,876.0021,399.9921,937.1322,487.7523,052.1923,630.8024,339.73
Payout Ratio35.97%46.78%57.58%68.39%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,509.0010,009.9812,631.7815,378.8818,255.9321,267.7222,514.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)9,150.369,240.519,330.65
Year 2 PV (M)10,555.4010,764.3910,975.43
Year 3 PV (M)11,747.3612,097.9712,455.49
Year 4 PV (M)12,747.4913,257.2813,782.20
Year 5 PV (M)13,575.2214,257.1914,966.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)269,765.27283,317.28297,408.54
Equity Value (M)327,541.10342,934.61358,918.60
Shares Outstanding (M)276.79276.79276.79
Fair Value$1,183.36$1,238.97$1,296.72
Upside / Downside-20.58%-16.85%-12.97%

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