Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

APAC Opto Electronics Inc. (4908.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.00 - $56.07$42.26
Multi-Stage$53.14 - $58.27$55.65
Blended Fair Value$48.95
Current Price$86.50
Upside-43.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.78%0.00%2.403.001.801.101.100.860.810.650.400.00
YoY Growth---20.00%66.67%63.64%0.00%27.91%6.46%25.17%62.34%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.74%5.55%3.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.9823.7414.24
Cash Retained (M)53.0053.0053.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.98-23.74-14.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.0229.2738.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.1978.1978.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.370.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.370.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate0.74%1.74%2.74%
Fair Value$32.00$42.26$56.07
Upside / Downside-63.01%-51.15%-35.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.88193.18196.53199.95203.42206.95213.16
Payout Ratio72.09%75.67%79.25%82.83%86.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.88146.18155.76165.63175.79186.26197.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate0.74%1.74%2.74%
Year 1 PV (M)135.46136.80138.15
Year 2 PV (M)133.75136.42139.12
Year 3 PV (M)131.80135.76139.80
Year 4 PV (M)129.63134.85140.23
Year 5 PV (M)127.27133.72140.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,496.973,674.023,858.17
Equity Value (M)4,154.874,351.574,555.88
Shares Outstanding (M)78.1978.1978.19
Fair Value$53.14$55.65$58.27
Upside / Downside-38.57%-35.66%-32.64%

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