Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mechema Chemicals International Corp. (4721.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.49 - $30.23$25.16
Multi-Stage$63.39 - $70.00$66.63
Blended Fair Value$45.89
Current Price$68.30
Upside-32.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.04%0.37%1.104.603.801.392.442.802.401.551.401.30
YoY Growth---76.09%21.05%173.38%-43.03%-12.86%16.67%54.84%10.71%7.69%22.64%
Dividend Yield--1.87%6.16%3.57%0.92%3.86%7.11%3.16%1.52%3.25%4.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.1125.0715.04
Cash Retained (M)118.04118.04118.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.11-25.07-15.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.9492.98103.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.0175.0175.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.241.37
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.241.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.142.342.47
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Fair Value$20.49$25.16$30.23
Upside / Downside-70.00%-63.16%-55.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.53194.01187.70181.59175.69169.98175.07
Payout Ratio41.13%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4998.76113.90127.94140.95152.98161.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate-4.25%-3.25%-2.25%
Year 1 PV (M)92.4393.4094.36
Year 2 PV (M)99.77101.86103.98
Year 3 PV (M)104.88108.21111.60
Year 4 PV (M)108.14112.73117.47
Year 5 PV (M)109.85115.71121.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,239.414,465.474,701.06
Equity Value (M)4,754.494,997.375,250.28
Shares Outstanding (M)75.0175.0175.01
Fair Value$63.39$66.63$70.00
Upside / Downside-7.19%-2.45%2.48%

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