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Tsumura & Co. (4540.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29,681.15 - $72,362.00$67,813.79
Multi-Stage$10,558.86 - $11,556.34$11,048.44
Blended Fair Value$39,431.11
Current Price$3,621.00
Upside988.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.00%7.17%119.7868.0665.0165.0165.0165.0264.9758.4859.4659.95
YoY Growth--75.99%4.70%0.00%0.00%-0.02%0.08%11.10%-1.65%-0.82%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.45%1.65%2.44%2.13%1.86%2.31%2.11%1.63%1.30%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,403.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,382.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,021.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,480.603,425.382,055.23
Cash Retained (M)17,021.0017,021.0017,021.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,480.60-3,425.38-2,055.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,540.4013,595.6314,965.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
LTM Dividend per Share137.85137.85137.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend291.09318.37336.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29,681.15$67,813.79$72,362.00
Upside / Downside719.69%1,772.79%1,898.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,403.0029,184.2031,081.1733,101.4435,253.0437,544.4838,670.82
Payout Ratio37.89%48.31%58.73%69.15%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,382.0014,098.6218,254.5322,891.1528,053.4133,790.0435,770.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,109.5713,233.8313,358.10
Year 2 PV (M)15,783.1916,083.8116,387.27
Year 3 PV (M)18,403.6318,931.9419,470.25
Year 4 PV (M)20,971.6921,778.2122,607.76
Year 5 PV (M)23,488.1424,622.6225,800.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)703,459.35737,436.70772,714.45
Equity Value (M)795,215.58832,087.12870,338.36
Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
Fair Value$10,558.86$11,048.44$11,556.34
Upside / Downside191.60%205.12%219.15%

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