Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hennge K.K. (4475.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$235.47 - $333.38$283.82
Multi-Stage$344.49 - $378.66$361.24
Blended Fair Value$322.53
Current Price$1,812.00
Upside-82.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,161.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,064.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)232.22145.1487.08
Cash Retained (M)1,064.841,064.841,064.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-232.22-145.14-87.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)832.63919.71977.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.2232.2232.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.5530.35
LTM Dividend per Share2.992.992.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.5530.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.8331.5433.34
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$235.47$283.82$333.38
Upside / Downside-87.01%-84.34%-81.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,161.081,149.471,137.981,126.601,115.331,104.181,137.30
Payout Ratio8.29%24.63%40.97%57.32%73.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.24283.13466.27645.71821.53993.761,052.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)254.79257.39259.99
Year 2 PV (M)377.60385.34393.17
Year 3 PV (M)470.58485.13499.98
Year 4 PV (M)538.78561.11584.13
Year 5 PV (M)586.51617.05648.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,869.739,331.609,812.51
Equity Value (M)11,097.9911,637.6212,198.62
Shares Outstanding (M)32.2232.2232.22
Fair Value$344.49$361.24$378.66
Upside / Downside-80.99%-80.06%-79.10%

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