Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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IPS, Inc. (4390.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,757.16 - $2,546.44$2,140.40
Multi-Stage$2,832.80 - $3,118.22$2,972.72
Blended Fair Value$2,556.56
Current Price$3,400.00
Upside-24.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%38.4732.8839.839.300.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.01%-17.46%328.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.43%1.71%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,191.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,066.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)638.20398.88239.33
Cash Retained (M)3,066.003,066.003,066.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-638.20-398.88-239.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,427.802,667.132,826.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share183.50201.59213.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.459.459.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share183.50201.59213.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend192.95211.04223.10
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,757.16$2,140.40$2,546.44
Upside / Downside-48.32%-37.05%-25.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,191.003,159.093,127.503,096.223,065.263,034.613,125.65
Payout Ratio3.92%21.13%38.35%55.57%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.00667.641,199.411,720.482,231.002,731.152,891.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)607.65613.85620.06
Year 2 PV (M)993.571,013.951,034.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,297.181,337.291,378.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,530.971,594.421,659.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,705.801,794.631,887.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,343.5632,975.6934,675.11
Equity Value (M)37,478.7339,329.8441,254.88
Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
Fair Value$2,832.80$2,972.72$3,118.22
Upside / Downside-16.68%-12.57%-8.29%

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