Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baazeem Trading Company (4051.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.10 - $3.19$2.61
Multi-Stage$5.21 - $5.74$5.47
Blended Fair Value$4.04
Current Price$5.74
Upside-29.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.71%0.00%0.180.180.250.180.160.150.170.170.210.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-26.53%40.00%9.38%6.67%-11.76%0.00%-19.92%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.86%2.61%3.71%1.75%1.49%4.24%5.82%7.33%6.10%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.903.061.84
Cash Retained (M)6.296.296.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.90-3.06-1.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.393.224.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.25101.25101.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.64%-1.64%-0.64%
Fair Value$2.10$2.61$3.19
Upside / Downside-63.43%-54.53%-44.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.5124.1123.7223.3322.9522.5723.25
Payout Ratio74.35%77.48%80.61%83.74%86.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.2318.6819.1219.5319.9320.3121.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.64%-1.64%-0.64%
Year 1 PV (M)17.3917.5717.75
Year 2 PV (M)16.5616.9017.25
Year 3 PV (M)15.7516.2416.74
Year 4 PV (M)14.9615.5816.23
Year 5 PV (M)14.1914.9315.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)449.16472.70497.22
Equity Value (M)528.01553.93580.90
Shares Outstanding (M)101.25101.25101.25
Fair Value$5.21$5.47$5.74
Upside / Downside-9.15%-4.69%-0.05%

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