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Definitive Analysis

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Fixstars Corporation (3687.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,716.82 - $5,337.67$2,749.29
Multi-Stage$1,132.92 - $1,237.89$1,184.45
Blended Fair Value$1,966.87
Current Price$2,046.00
Upside-3.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.58%28.59%12.989.955.036.097.687.185.144.784.092.39
YoY Growth--30.53%97.69%-17.39%-20.65%6.93%39.58%7.63%16.76%71.33%127.48%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.77%0.41%0.68%0.82%0.46%0.52%0.41%0.57%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,111.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)610.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,501.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)422.27263.92158.35
Cash Retained (M)1,501.351,501.351,501.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-422.27-263.92-158.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,079.081,237.431,343.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.2332.2332.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.4838.3941.67
LTM Dividend per Share18.9318.9318.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.4838.3941.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend52.4157.3260.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,716.82$2,749.29$5,337.67
Upside / Downside-16.09%34.37%160.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,111.352,248.582,394.742,550.402,716.182,892.732,979.51
Payout Ratio28.89%41.11%53.33%65.56%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)610.00924.471,277.231,671.962,112.602,603.462,756.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)842.33850.31858.30
Year 2 PV (M)1,060.361,080.561,100.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,264.741,301.051,338.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,456.081,512.071,569.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,634.971,713.941,795.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,256.9131,718.3333,235.68
Equity Value (M)36,515.3938,176.2639,898.57
Shares Outstanding (M)32.2332.2332.23
Fair Value$1,132.92$1,184.45$1,237.89
Upside / Downside-44.63%-42.11%-39.50%

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