Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keck Seng (Malaysia) Berhad (3476.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.87 - $20.09$13.80
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.24$9.78
Blended Fair Value$11.79
Current Price$5.73
Upside105.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS8.45%0.00%0.150.140.100.000.000.100.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.14%40.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.43%2.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5925.3715.22
Cash Retained (M)184.98184.98184.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.59-25.37-15.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.39159.61169.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)359.30359.30359.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$9.87$13.80$20.09
Upside / Downside72.17%140.85%250.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.95212.40222.30232.66243.50254.85262.49
Payout Ratio8.85%25.08%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.9753.2891.84133.87179.63229.36242.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)48.6749.1449.61
Year 2 PV (M)76.6678.1479.64
Year 3 PV (M)102.10105.08108.12
Year 4 PV (M)125.16130.06135.10
Year 5 PV (M)146.01153.19160.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,858.292,998.843,144.87
Equity Value (M)3,356.883,514.463,678.00
Shares Outstanding (M)359.30359.30359.30
Fair Value$9.34$9.78$10.24
Upside / Downside63.05%70.70%78.65%

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