Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Alloy-Tech Company (3162.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.26 - $26.61$22.30
Multi-Stage$30.54 - $33.61$32.05
Blended Fair Value$27.17
Current Price$53.40
Upside-49.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)318.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)279.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.6939.8023.88
Cash Retained (M)279.32279.32279.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.69-39.80-23.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.63239.52255.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.841.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.26$22.30$26.61
Upside / Downside-65.81%-58.24%-50.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)318.43315.25312.10308.98305.89302.83311.91
Payout Ratio12.28%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.1187.72135.36182.03227.75272.54288.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.0380.8581.67
Year 2 PV (M)112.67114.98117.32
Year 3 PV (M)138.24142.51146.88
Year 4 PV (M)157.81164.35171.09
Year 5 PV (M)172.29181.26190.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,316.643,489.343,669.17
Equity Value (M)3,977.684,173.304,376.72
Shares Outstanding (M)130.23130.23130.23
Fair Value$30.54$32.05$33.61
Upside / Downside-42.80%-39.99%-37.06%

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