Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sidea Semiconductor Eqpmnt Shnzhn Co Ltd (301629.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.15 - $14.38$12.24
Multi-Stage$16.60 - $18.15$17.36
Blended Fair Value$14.80
Current Price$214.50
Upside-93.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.280.400.190.120.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-29.63%107.69%62.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.18%0.25%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.436.523.91
Cash Retained (M)12.2012.2012.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.43-6.52-3.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.775.688.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7733.7733.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.170.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.170.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.15$12.24$14.38
Upside / Downside-95.27%-94.30%-93.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.1751.6551.1450.6350.1249.6251.11
Payout Ratio76.62%79.29%81.97%84.65%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.9740.9641.9242.8543.7744.6647.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8837.2637.63
Year 2 PV (M)33.9834.6835.39
Year 3 PV (M)31.2832.2533.24
Year 4 PV (M)28.7729.9631.19
Year 5 PV (M)26.4327.8129.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)403.26424.26446.12
Equity Value (M)560.60586.21612.80
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7733.7733.77
Fair Value$16.60$17.36$18.15
Upside / Downside-92.26%-91.91%-91.54%

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