Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Comptech Composites Corp (301591.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.81 - $10.01$8.35
Multi-Stage$9.45 - $10.35$9.89
Blended Fair Value$9.12
Current Price$42.21
Upside-78.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS1.87%0.00%0.310.000.050.580.230.290.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-91.33%157.00%-21.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.00%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.388.995.39
Cash Retained (M)44.9844.9844.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.38-8.99-5.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.6035.9939.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$6.81$8.35$10.01
Upside / Downside-83.87%-80.22%-76.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.9072.5273.1573.7974.4375.0877.33
Payout Ratio37.44%47.95%58.46%68.98%79.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.9234.7842.7750.9059.1667.5771.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)31.3131.6331.94
Year 2 PV (M)34.6735.3736.07
Year 3 PV (M)37.1538.2839.43
Year 4 PV (M)38.8840.4642.09
Year 5 PV (M)39.9842.0344.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)607.82638.87671.17
Equity Value (M)789.82826.63864.85
Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
Fair Value$9.45$9.89$10.35
Upside / Downside-77.62%-76.57%-75.49%

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