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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Jdd Tech New Material Co Ltd (301538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.78 - $587.83$220.01
Multi-Stage$62.02 - $67.84$64.88
Blended Fair Value$142.45
Current Price$93.80
Upside51.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS30.58%0.00%0.590.010.010.000.160.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7,066.74%50.70%384.16%-99.30%3.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)197.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.5424.7114.83
Cash Retained (M)152.12152.12152.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.54-24.71-14.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.57127.40137.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8966.8966.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.592.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.78$220.01$587.83
Upside / Downside18.10%134.56%526.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)197.71210.56224.24238.82254.34270.88279.00
Payout Ratio23.06%36.45%49.84%63.22%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.5976.74111.75150.99194.86243.79258.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.5571.2271.89
Year 2 PV (M)94.4596.2598.07
Year 3 PV (M)117.32120.69124.12
Year 4 PV (M)139.20144.55150.06
Year 5 PV (M)160.10167.84175.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,566.713,738.983,917.85
Equity Value (M)4,148.344,339.544,537.85
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8966.8966.89
Fair Value$62.02$64.88$67.84
Upside / Downside-33.88%-30.83%-27.67%

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