Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hualan Biological Bacterin Inc. (301207.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.78 - $1.11$0.94
Multi-Stage$1.31 - $1.43$1.37
Blended Fair Value$1.16
Current Price$17.28
Upside-93.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.210.150.020.010.000.000.170.000.00
YoY Growth--165.15%38.74%611.92%178.26%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.32%0.87%0.48%0.07%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.098.815.28
Cash Retained (M)9.659.659.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.09-8.81-5.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.450.844.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.71595.71595.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.78$0.94$1.11
Upside / Downside-95.47%-94.53%-93.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.4669.7669.0668.3767.6967.0169.02
Payout Ratio86.31%87.05%87.79%88.52%89.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.8260.7260.6360.5260.4260.3163.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)54.7255.2855.84
Year 2 PV (M)49.2350.2451.26
Year 3 PV (M)44.2945.6647.06
Year 4 PV (M)39.8541.5043.20
Year 5 PV (M)35.8437.7139.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)554.20583.06613.10
Equity Value (M)778.14813.45850.12
Shares Outstanding (M)595.71595.71595.71
Fair Value$1.31$1.37$1.43
Upside / Downside-92.44%-92.10%-91.74%

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