Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Huayan Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (301138.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.25 - $34.86$24.07
Multi-Stage$13.20 - $14.43$13.80
Blended Fair Value$18.94
Current Price$35.98
Upside-47.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS14.79%0.00%0.501.000.600.000.210.250.140.360.000.00
YoY Growth---50.00%66.67%0.00%-100.00%-16.96%79.45%-61.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.74%3.61%2.29%0.00%0.26%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.6114.758.85
Cash Retained (M)106.03106.03106.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.61-14.75-8.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.4391.2897.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Fair Value$17.25$24.07$34.86
Upside / Downside-52.05%-33.11%-3.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.03125.32133.05141.26149.98159.24164.02
Payout Ratio10.17%26.13%42.10%58.07%74.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.0032.7556.0182.03111.04143.31151.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)29.5029.7830.06
Year 2 PV (M)45.4546.3247.20
Year 3 PV (M)59.9561.6863.44
Year 4 PV (M)73.1175.9378.83
Year 5 PV (M)85.0089.1193.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,291.191,353.751,418.72
Equity Value (M)1,584.201,656.571,731.63
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$13.20$13.80$14.43
Upside / Downside-63.31%-61.63%-59.89%

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