Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing VDL Electronics Co., Ltd. (301121.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.05 - $99.02$92.80
Multi-Stage$56.47 - $61.94$59.16
Blended Fair Value$75.98
Current Price$52.91
Upside43.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS47.85%0.00%0.470.170.080.040.010.070.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--174.10%115.30%96.48%548.22%-90.60%1,055.88%241.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.69%0.19%0.06%0.01%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.674.802.88
Cash Retained (M)11.0011.0011.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.67-4.80-2.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.326.208.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.0777.0777.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate2.71%2.71%2.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.05$92.80$99.02
Upside / Downside58.85%75.39%87.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38.3740.8743.5246.3549.3652.5754.15
Payout Ratio71.34%75.07%78.80%82.54%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3730.6834.3038.2642.5947.3250.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.71%2.71%2.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.5929.8730.15
Year 2 PV (M)31.9032.5133.12
Year 3 PV (M)34.3235.3136.31
Year 4 PV (M)36.8538.2639.72
Year 5 PV (M)39.4841.3943.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,179.784,381.664,591.27
Equity Value (M)4,351.924,559.004,773.95
Shares Outstanding (M)77.0777.0777.07
Fair Value$56.47$59.16$61.94
Upside / Downside6.73%11.80%17.08%

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