Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co., Ltd. (301022.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.58 - $9.25$7.21
Multi-Stage$18.76 - $20.68$19.70
Blended Fair Value$13.45
Current Price$35.92
Upside-62.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.280.220.220.010.020.000.010.060.000.00
YoY Growth--29.42%-0.76%3,437.15%-60.71%0.00%-100.00%-79.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.05%0.63%0.93%0.02%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.755.473.28
Cash Retained (M)15.2715.2715.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.75-5.47-3.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.529.8111.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.3488.3488.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.58$7.21$9.25
Upside / Downside-84.46%-79.94%-74.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.7443.3042.8742.4442.0241.6042.84
Payout Ratio65.08%70.07%75.05%80.03%85.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.4730.3432.1733.9735.7237.4439.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.6228.9129.20
Year 2 PV (M)28.6229.2129.80
Year 3 PV (M)28.5029.3830.28
Year 4 PV (M)28.2729.4430.65
Year 5 PV (M)27.9429.4030.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,515.031,593.921,676.07
Equity Value (M)1,656.991,740.261,826.92
Shares Outstanding (M)88.3488.3488.34
Fair Value$18.76$19.70$20.68
Upside / Downside-47.78%-45.15%-42.42%

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