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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Allfavor Intelligent Circuits Technology CO.,Ltd (300964.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.03 - $4.29$3.65
Multi-Stage$4.55 - $5.00$4.77
Blended Fair Value$4.21
Current Price$43.45
Upside-90.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS0.29%0.00%0.400.000.300.000.000.400.140.010.000.01
YoY Growth--318,879.30%-99.96%10,557.75%60.95%-99.56%186.38%1,384.53%167.05%-62.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.00%0.54%0.01%0.00%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.134.462.67
Cash Retained (M)27.3327.3327.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.13-4.46-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.2022.8724.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.9676.9676.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.03$3.65$4.29
Upside / Downside-93.02%-91.59%-90.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.6435.2934.9434.5934.2433.9034.91
Payout Ratio23.33%36.67%50.00%63.33%76.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3212.9417.4721.9026.2530.5132.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6511.7611.88
Year 2 PV (M)14.1514.4414.73
Year 3 PV (M)15.9716.4716.97
Year 4 PV (M)17.2317.9418.68
Year 5 PV (M)18.0218.9619.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)273.27287.50302.32
Equity Value (M)350.29367.08384.52
Shares Outstanding (M)76.9676.9676.96
Fair Value$4.55$4.77$5.00
Upside / Downside-89.52%-89.02%-88.50%

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