Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Bojun Industrial Technology Co., Ltd (300926.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.39 - $402.85$377.53
Multi-Stage$62.67 - $68.67$65.61
Blended Fair Value$221.57
Current Price$31.26
Upside608.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS55.35%0.00%0.180.080.080.030.020.020.010.010.040.00
YoY Growth--116.30%5.35%159.33%47.33%3.94%40.14%60.01%-76.39%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.41%0.59%0.41%0.25%0.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)872.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)783.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.45109.0365.42
Cash Retained (M)783.96783.96783.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.45-109.03-65.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)609.51674.93718.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)430.60430.60430.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.571.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.571.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.39$377.53$402.85
Upside / Downside611.42%1,107.71%1,188.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)872.23928.93989.311,053.621,122.101,195.041,230.89
Payout Ratio10.12%26.10%42.07%58.05%74.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.28242.42416.23611.61830.631,075.531,138.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)225.98228.12230.26
Year 2 PV (M)361.68368.57375.52
Year 3 PV (M)495.41509.63524.12
Year 4 PV (M)627.18651.30676.11
Year 5 PV (M)757.02793.59831.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,516.7625,700.9326,930.42
Equity Value (M)26,984.0328,252.1429,567.99
Shares Outstanding (M)430.60430.60430.60
Fair Value$62.67$65.61$68.67
Upside / Downside100.47%109.89%119.67%

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